When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
In the past one hundred years, the Middle East has seen its fair share of meddling from Europe, the Americas, Asia and Russia (and the former Soviet Union). It would be hypocritical of me to deny America’s primary interest in the region -crude oil- has not led to some past misdeeds. While I speak only to America’s reliance on crude, I would speculate that any nation’s interest in the Middle East over the past one hundred years was predicated primarily on oil. A consequence of this multi-lateral international meddling is the ever-present need to prevent any one nation from becoming too powerful, thereby threatening regional stability and the flow of oil to the world’s consumers. A consequential outcome is a dearth of local leadership; the very thing the region needs in order to assure long-term stability.
The following list of once dominant nations in the region have seen their fortunes (monetary and political) ebb through the years; and with them all chances for regional leadership:
- Egypt—waning significance since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1979. The Muslim Brotherhood (a precursor to Al-Qaeda), believed to be responsible for Sadat’s assassination, continues to exert its influence by quashing any attempts at moderation;
- Saudi Arabia—no real interest in leadership; quite comfortable with living on its oil-wealth;
- Syria—viewed as corrupted by Iranian meddling and instigation;
- Lebanon—ruled by Hezbollah, a puppet Terrorist State whose strings lay in the hands of the Mullahs in Iran;
- Jordan—content to stay out of the fray. Jordan has since reconciled to having Israel as a neighbor;
- Iran—in spite of the hostage crisis, which ended as Ronald Reagan took office, Iran continues to squander its chances for leadership significance.
Iran has so infuriated the international community that it has lost any credibility it might have had in the region. The Iranians are even at odds with the Saudis; more than 100 Iranian newspapers have been banned in Saudi Arabia. None of the nations listed here possesses the capability or the credibility to effectively fulfill the role of leader of the Middle East. Unmistakably, unless a strong Middle East leader emerges, the Israeli/Palestinian question is not likely to be resolved in the foreseeable future.
Curiously absent from this list is Turkey, which by all appearances has the potential for providing some stability within the [Muslim] Middle East. The central flaw with this wish is Turkey’s desire to join the European Union (EU). Having abandoned its Middle East roots, Turkey has sought a European identity—a pursuit that has occupied most of Turkey’s recent history (since its founding in 1923; following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire). In the interim, Turkey has seen its chances for EU membership diminish. It could be argued that Turkey is more than ten years away from meeting the basic qualifications for EU membership.
This explains why Turkey has seized upon the opportunity to supplant itself into to picture by flagrantly sponsoring and flagging a ship to sail on a military blockade. Moreover, since the conclusion of World War I, Turkey has sought a European identity. Having abandoned its Middle Eastern heritage in favor of courting the Europeans, Turkey appears to be losing hope of ever joining the EU. Furthermore, Turkey would be required to conform to many rigorous standards [such as human rights requirements and women’s’ rights, to name a few] in order to qualify for EU membership. Needless to say, irrespective of European attitudes towards Turkey, the Turks are a long way from being ready to comply with EU membership requirements. Turkey’s quest for legitimacy has led it back to the Middle East, where it hopes to emerge as the de facto leader.
If Turkey’s initial strategy is any indication of how it plans on establishing its dominance (by going after Israel), the world community could be in for far graver events in the Middle East in years to come. U.S. Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, has voiced his concerns over Turkey’s growing influence in the Middle East, and in the Balkans. Gates has also expressed grave concern over Turkey’s relationship with Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan vis-à-vis its willingness to become embroiled in local politics.
Turkey’s play for Middle East leadership has a two-pronged strategy: first, normalizing relations with its neighbors (including Armenia—home to the oldest existing Christian community); and second, mounting a credible anti-Israel effort. The anti-Israel tactic is essential if Turkey is to have any credibility with its proposed Middle East constituents. Robert Gates is right on target by monitoring Turkey’s relationship with its neighbors; however, its attitude towards Israel poses far graver consequences. Worst still, should Turkey succeed in normalizing relations with Armenia, this would give the appearance that the Muslims and the Christians have joined forces against the Jews; a prospect I do not relish.
My singular hope here is that Mr. Obama puts aside any personal/ideological differences he might have with Israel and demonstrate his willingness to defend our most loyal and stalwart ally in the region. Anything less would betray the efforts of his predecessors to cultivate a loyal ally and lay the groundwork for any future chances for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Furthermore, an abandonment of Israel would backfire on the United States by putting our other allies on notice that we cannot be trusted to be there in times of need.
These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Published December 23, 1776, these words from Thomas Paine [an immigrant at the time] sum up the moral and strategic necessity to stand with our ally, Israel. We cannot afford the shroud of personal ideological fragments to cause us to squander what hundreds of thousands of men and women have fought and died for—FREEDOM—whether ours or Israel’s.
Contact your elected representatives and tell them that you expect the United States to stand with Israel, and any of our allies or you will not stand with them on Election Day.
